Q3 Has Historically Been The Worst Time For Bitcoin Investors
In a recent analysis, Charles Edwards, the founder of Capriole Investments, shared insights on the current state of Bitcoin investors. According to Edwards, investors are navigating through historically the most challenging period for Bitcoin. Below is the table referenced by the analyst, detailing Bitcoin’s quarterly returns throughout its history.
The data reveals that the third quarter (Q3) has typically been the most unfavorable for Bitcoin, with average returns of +5% and median returns of -4%. For comparison, the second quarter (Q2) is the second-worst performing period, but its average and median returns of +27% and +7%, respectively, are still significantly better than those of Q3.
Conversely, the fourth quarter (Q4) has historically been the most profitable for Bitcoin. During this period, the cryptocurrency has seen average and median returns of +89% and +57%, respectively. Edwards notes, “If you are still here, congratulations. You made it through the worst time to be in Bitcoin. The best lies ahead.”
Last year, Bitcoin experienced a significant increase of nearly 57% in Q4. As Q3 nears its end, the performance of Bitcoin in the upcoming Q4 remains to be seen.
Historical Patterns and On-Chain Analysis
On-chain analyst Checkmate has also contributed to the discussion by analyzing the daily price performance distribution of Bitcoin across bear and bull markets. The chart shared by Checkmate provides a deeper understanding of these patterns.
According to the data, approximately 28% of bear market days have seen Bitcoin’s price increase by more than +1%, while about 38% of the days have seen a decline of more than -1%. The remaining 34% of the days have seen the cryptocurrency’s price remain within a range of +1% to -1% of the previous day’s price.
During bullish periods, Bitcoin has experienced a rise of more than +1% on 33% of the days, while 26% of the days have registered a drop of over -1%. The asset has remained stable within the +1% to -1% range for the remaining 41% of the days.
The symmetry between these three types of days is noteworthy; however, what stands out is the almost identical distribution patterns between bear and bull markets. Checkmate observes, “Day traders are attempting to beat a three-sided coin, with a third of all days rallying, a third selling-off, and a third doing nothing.”
BTC Price
Recently, Bitcoin has exhibited a sudden surge in bullish momentum. Over the past 24 hours, its price has increased by more than 5%, reaching the $60,900 level. This unexpected rise indicates a potential shift in market sentiment as Q4 approaches, further fueling optimism among investors.
As the cryptocurrency market evolves, historical trends and on-chain analyses provide valuable insights. While past performance does not guarantee future results, understanding these patterns can help investors make informed decisions. As Q4 nears, the anticipation of a potential bullish momentum for Bitcoin continues to grow, encouraging investors to stay vigilant and strategize accordingly.
