The most recent Bitcoin Halving event occurred on April 19, 2024. Investors have placed high hopes on this year, drawing from the substantial returns of previous halving years. For instance, the Bitcoin market yielded an impressive +304.1% return during the last halving event. However, Ki Young Ju, in a post on X, expressed skepticism about whether this year can match the outstanding performance of prior halving years.
Bitcoin’s Halving Years: What’s the Expectation for 2024?
Bitcoin has experienced at least four halving events, including the one that took place this year. The inaugural halving event in 2012 resulted in a commendable +183.5% return, though it was less than the colossal +1,435% gain from the preceding year. A noticeable trend began with the second halving in 2016, which saw the market achieve a +123.8% annual return—a significant increase from the previous year’s +34.4%.
Continuing this pattern, the third halving in 2020 witnessed an impressive +304.1% return, more than tripling the +90.9% gain of the previous year. In 2023, the market recorded a +155.4% return. If this trend continues, the market would need to surpass a +155.4% return. Currently, Bitcoin is priced at $60,788, having grown just 37.61% from its starting price of $44,172.80 earlier this year, which is less than encouraging.
Expert’s Concern About the Underperformance of BTC in This Halving Year
Ki Young Ju has raised concerns as at least 285 days have passed in 2024 without significant momentum. He cautioned that without a notable shift in the next 14 days, this year might mark the longest period of stagnation in any halving year. His argument is supported by the ‘Bitcoin Cumulative Return Index on Halving Year’ chart.
Bitcoin Market Landscape: Is It Favourable for a Bullish Run?
The Bitcoin market faced a significant decline at the start of this month, triggered by the unexpected escalation of the Israel-Iran power struggle. On October 1, the price fell from $63,342 to $60,817. The downward momentum continued on the following day, pushing the price further down to $60,642. On October 3, buying pressure attempted to lift the price above the October 1 opening, but sellers prevailed when the price reached $62,816 on October 6.
Under intense selling pressure, Bitcoin hit a monthly low of $60,326 on October 10. However, the market is showing slight bullish signs as it has recently surpassed the opening price of the previous day. Historically, October has been a favorable month for Bitcoin, with a +28.5% return in October 2023. During the first twelve days of that month, the market fluctuated between $27,995 and $26,744. On October 13, 2023, strong buying pressure spurred a sharp rise from $26,779 to $34,482. By the month’s end, the market hovered within the high range of $34,634 and $33,909.
Conclusion: Will History Repeat Itself?
To adhere to the broader halving year trend, a repeat of the October 2023 momentum is essential for this year. As the clock ticks, investors and market watchers are keenly observing whether Bitcoin will rally to meet these expectations.
