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In a recent video analysis titled “No Bull,” renowned crypto analyst Bob Loukas provides an in-depth look at the current state of the Bitcoin market. As concerns about a potentially canceled bull run grow, Loukas shares his insights into the factors driving the market dynamics.
Is the Bitcoin Bull Run Over?
Loukas begins by acknowledging the extended period of consolidation in Bitcoin’s price, noting the fear that has started to permeate the market. This apprehension is partly due to the prolonged wait for the Bitcoin ETF approval and the passing of the halving event, which have yet to trigger substantial upward momentum in Bitcoin’s price.
Market Observations and Sentiment
Despite robust performance in traditional markets, with the stock market and gold reaching new highs, Bitcoin appears to be struggling. Loukas describes the crypto market sentiment as negative, driven by declining altcoins and the speculative nature of memecoins. However, he views this as a typical market behavior and highlights that Bitcoin remains near its previous cycle’s all-time highs.
A Bullish Interpretation of Consolidation
Loukas interprets the eight-month consolidation in Bitcoin’s price as a positive indicator. He suggests that this phase could be beneficial, as it aligns with the four-year cycle and reflects a reset in market sentiment. According to him, the fundamentals and macroeconomic factors appear favorable for Bitcoin’s future growth.
Related Insights
Loukas further discusses the timeline of the current market cycle, noting that it is approximately 23 months since the last cycle’s low in November 2022. As the market approaches its two-year anniversary, he acknowledges the fear that has emerged following a highly bullish period earlier in the cycle.
Investor Concerns and Market Dynamics
Investors are wary because Bitcoin’s last all-time high was seven months ago, and recent price movements have formed lower highs and lows. This pattern has created anxiety among those who entered the market late and found themselves unable to capitalize on expected dips. Additionally, many investors shifted to altcoins, which have since experienced significant losses.
Understanding Market Cycles
Loukas explains that the absence of a typical 30% decline during this bullish phase has confused many investors. Instead, the market experienced time-based corrections, which were around 20% from peak to trough, leading to challenges in timing market entry. He emphasizes that the current consolidation is crucial for resetting market sentiment and preparing for the next phase of the cycle.
When Will BTC Price Break Out?
Overall, Loukas remains optimistic about the market’s trajectory within the current four-year cycle. He highlights several factors supporting a bullish outlook, such as institutional inflows into Bitcoin and the resilience of Bitcoin’s price despite large sell-offs by governments. Loukas points out that the ETF is still expected to gain approval, and the macroeconomic environment is favorable.
The Magic of the Four-Year Cycle
Loukas is particularly excited about the cyclical patterns, noting that the third year of the four-year cycle is often the most dynamic. He anticipates that Bitcoin will break out of its current range within the next 90 days, leading to predominantly positive monthly trends. Although he refrains from giving specific price targets, he suggests that reaching between $120,000 and $180,000 is plausible.
Projecting Future Trends
Focusing on time and sentiment, Loukas believes that Bitcoin’s peak in this cycle could occur around October 2025, aligning with historical patterns. However, he acknowledges that market movements can vary, and the peak might arrive earlier than expected.
Short-term Market Outlook
Looking ahead, Loukas identifies the upcoming US election as a potential market influencer, particularly due to the GOP’s favorable stance on crypto. He speculates that the market might remain stable until the election concludes, with significant movements possibly occurring afterward. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $60,699.
