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In a recent analysis shared on X, renowned crypto analyst Gum (@0xGumshoe) has forecasted a significant rise in the price of Solana (SOL), predicting it could reach $500 by the end of this bullish phase. This optimistic projection is closely tied to the upcoming US presidential election scheduled for November 5th, and the potential policy shifts that may emerge as a result.
Solana Price Prediction For This Bull Run
@0xGumshoe began his analysis with an assertive statement: “SOL TO $500. The upcoming US elections will affect SOL more than any other token. Here’s why I’ve changed my price target.” He delved into the potential scenarios that could unfold, examining the implications of both possible election outcomes—whether Kamala Harris assumes the presidency or Donald Trump returns to office. Each scenario offers unique pathways for Solana’s future trajectory.
Impact of a Kamala Harris Victory
Should Kamala Harris win, @0xGumshoe anticipates a nuanced impact on Solana. He observed, “BTC and SOL have outperformed during Biden/Harris,” particularly highlighting their performance over the past year under the current administration. The approval of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) during the Biden/Harris tenure is identified by the analyst as a positive factor that could continue to bolster Solana. Furthermore, Harris’s purported commitment to a “less aggressive stance towards crypto” regulation suggests a potentially conducive environment for Solana’s growth.
However, @0xGumshoe also warned of potential hurdles under a Harris administration. He noted, “Less regulatory clarity” and the possibility of another term for SEC Chair Gary Gensler could complicate matters for Solana. Additionally, the rejection of a spot Solana ETF and increased Bitcoin dominance could pose challenges for altcoins.
Prospects of a Donald Trump Victory
Conversely, @0xGumshoe presented a more optimistic outlook if Donald Trump wins the election. He claimed, “A Trump win will send Solana to ATHs as the market realizes a SOL ETF will be coming.” The analyst emphasized that unlike Bitcoin and Ethereum, Grayscale is unlikely to sell off significant amounts of Solana, which could help sustain its price. Moreover, the potential establishment of a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve and the departure of SEC Chair Gary Gensler are seen as positive catalysts for SOL.
However, a Trump victory might also carry risks. @0xGumshoe acknowledged that “higher inflation could eventually end the cycle like in 2021.” Moreover, he noted Trump’s inherent unpredictability, stating that the former president “may not do what he promised,” introducing uncertainty into the projections.
Revised Selling Targets and Valuation Considerations
Considering these scenarios, @0xGumshoe adjusted his selling targets for Solana. Previously advocating for a $300 sell target, he now envisions a higher threshold of $500, contingent upon a Trump win and an increase in macro liquidity. He explained, “If we pair up a Trump win and increase macro liquidity, I will instead sell over time for as long as I believe we hit $500.”
The rationale behind the $500 price target is anchored in Solana’s fully diluted valuation (FDV). @0xGumshoe articulated, “At that price, Solana would have a $291B FDV which would put it at the current ETH market cap.” He views this valuation as a significant benchmark, suggesting that Solana’s price could approach Ethereum’s market capitalization unless a substantial influx of investments through ETFs propels the token beyond this threshold.
Under a Harris administration, @0xGumshoe’s price target for Solana remains at $300. He concluded his analysis by advising caution, stating, “The elections alone are not enough to predict tops for Solana so take this with a grain of salt. Whatever happens, it is quite obvious that SOL will go far higher with Trump than Harris.”
At the time of writing, SOL traded at $161.
