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Renowned crypto analyst TradingShot has recently delved into the Bitcoin price rejection observed at $99,000. His insights provide a comprehensive look into whether this rejection is a temporary setback or signifies the cessation of the current bull rally. According to TradingShot, the rejection appears to be temporary, with the potential for Bitcoin to not only reach the $100,000 milestone but to exceed it.
Understanding the Temporary Nature of Bitcoin’s Price Rejection at $99,000
In a detailed analysis shared on TradingView, TradingShot posits that the Bitcoin price rejection at $99,000 is likely a fleeting phenomenon. The analyst attributes this to a possible waning of the post-election optimism, as the market has already factored in the likelihood of pro-crypto Donald Trump assuming the presidency. This sentiment might have led to a momentary pause in the price surge.
Furthermore, the analyst highlights the psychological barrier posed by the $100,000 mark, which often prompts investors to secure profits at such pivotal levels. From a technical standpoint, TradingShot delves into the factors contributing to the $99,000 rejection, emphasizing the influence of a Fibonacci channel that has persisted through the past three market cycles, including the current one.
The Role of Fibonacci Levels in Bitcoin’s Price Movements
TradingShot’s analysis underscores a significant Fibonacci channel pattern, which initially manifested with a robust rebound culminating in the December 2013 Bitcoin price peak. This cycle apex coincided with the 0.236 Fibonacci level, a threshold that has historically curtailed bullish rallies in subsequent cycles.
On November 22, this Fibonacci level curtailed the upward trajectory of Bitcoin, marking it as the ‘1st Real Resistance of the Bull Cycle.’ This level is identified as the inaugural major resistance encountered within a bull cycle before reaching the ultimate market peak. Notably, highs in the last two cycles were recorded at the 0.0 Fibonacci level, situated at the upper boundary of this channel.
TradingShot’s accompanying chart suggests that the pinnacle of this channel for Bitcoin could potentially exceed $200,000. However, it is important to note that the red marker in the current cycle, projected for late 2025, serves merely as a comparative illustration and not a definitive forecast.
Projecting the Timing of the Market Peak
In addition to analyzing price levels, TradingShot offers insights into the timing of Bitcoin’s potential market peak within this cycle. Past bull cycles have averaged approximately 150 weeks (or 1050 days). Extrapolating this pattern suggests that the apex for Bitcoin in the current cycle might occur around late September or early October.
The analyst emphasizes the importance of timing the market peak for selling, rather than fixating on a specific price target. Despite the current technical rejection, the rally initiated from the August 5 low, aligning precisely with the 1-week 50-day moving average. As long as this trendline remains intact, TradingShot asserts that the cyclical bullish momentum should persist.
Bitcoin’s price rise above $95,000, as observed on TradingView, further supports this analysis, indicating a strong underlying growth trajectory despite short-term rejections.
