Bitcoin experienced a brief surge in the last week of October, but as we step into November, its price has adjusted to below $68,000. This is a typical behavior for Bitcoin; however, it significantly influences the broader cryptocurrency market, particularly altcoins. Historical data underscores that altcoins are heavily reliant on Bitcoin’s price trends. With Bitcoin’s market dominance reaching 60%, altcoins find themselves struggling to initiate price rallies.
Anticipated Trends in Altcoin Valuation
Renowned crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has provided insights into the future of altcoin market movements. He forecasts a sharp decline for altcoins, which may occur around early 2025, before a recovery phase begins. Cowen suggests that the altcoin market will undergo a substantial correction by December 2024 or early January 2025, marking a critical period for traders and investors.
According to Cowen, the anticipated correction is necessary for the market’s long-term health. This phase, which he refers to as the “altcoin reckoning,” is expected to conclude by the end of 2024 or the beginning of 2025. Despite the challenges, this period is seen as an essential step in the market’s evolution.
Altcoin Market: A Reflection of 2019 Trends
In a comprehensive analysis on his YouTube channel, Cowen revisited Bitcoin’s price trajectory and historical market trends to predict altcoin performance. He argues that a significant rally in the altcoin market is unlikely in the near term, primarily due to Bitcoin’s current dominance and prevailing market conditions.
Current data reveals that altcoins are losing momentum against Bitcoin, the leading asset in the crypto world. History shows that altcoins can only thrive if Bitcoin embarks on a parabolic rise. Cowen draws parallels with the bear market of 2019 when altcoins faced a downturn before beginning recovery in 2020, eventually reaching new highs a year later. He anticipates a similar narrative unfolding in 2025, where altcoin prices will hit bottom before embarking on a potential rally.
Analysts’ Diverging Perspectives on Altcoin Performance
In a recent discussion, Cowen revisited the Bitcoin/altcoin pairing, highlighting its underperformance over the past three years. This trend aligns with historical precedents, where the last two “alt-seasons” occurred post-halvings in 2017 and 2021.
Bitcoin’s Unwavering Market Dominance
Bitcoin continues to hold a commanding position in the cryptocurrency landscape, with its market share reaching an impressive 60.5%. According to Cryptographic, Bitcoin is enjoying a two-year peak, maintaining stable market prices within the $68,000 to $70,000 range. Despite Bitcoin’s resilience, alternative cryptocurrencies have witnessed significant declines, with some experiencing drops of 20% to 40%.
Traditionally, Bitcoin’s dominance has been associated with reduced altcoin prices. However, experts believe a shift could occur if Bitcoin encounters resistance in the 64% to 65.81% dominance range. Should this happen, Bitcoin might achieve a new all-time high or enter a lateral movement phase. Conversely, if Bitcoin’s market share slips below 50%, a resurgence in altcoin prices could be on the horizon.
