Potential End of Bitcoin Bull Run by January 2025
Crypto analyst Tony Severino has forecasted a significant development in the cryptocurrency market, suggesting that Bitcoin’s bull run might conclude as early as January 2025. His analysis projects that Bitcoin (BTC) could peak below $150,000 when this bullish phase reaches its zenith next month.
Bitcoin Price Could Top Below $150,000
In a recent post, Tony Severino reiterated his theory, emphasizing that Bitcoin could reach its peak by January 20, 2025. He shared a detailed chart illustrating Bitcoin’s adherence to a classic market cycle, suggesting that BTC might top below $150,000 as it approaches the market apex soon.
Market Cycle Insights and Future Projections
Severino’s chart indicates that Bitcoin is currently in the final phase of this market cycle’s motive wave. Once this wave concludes, potentially by January 2025, the subsequent corrective wave might initiate. This phase, signaling the onset of a bear market, could persist until mid-2027, potentially causing Bitcoin’s value to retrace to around $50,000.
Impact of Donald Trump’s Pro-Crypto Stance
In a comprehensive blog post, Severino elaborated on the factors that could lead to an early peak in Bitcoin’s bull run. He highlighted Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections as a pivotal narrative that triggered a market-wide surge. Following Trump’s pro-crypto stance, Bitcoin broke through a significant resistance level on the night of his victory, subsequently rallying to $100,000.
Market Sentiments and Efficient Market Hypothesis
Severino remarked that the current pro-crypto environment under Trump’s influence is a fresh paradigm. He noted that market players might struggle to envision a scenario where Bitcoin’s price doesn’t escalate further, given Trump’s pledge to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, potentially inciting FOMO among other nations. However, Severino urged caution, referencing the Efficient Market Hypothesis, which proposes that markets swiftly incorporate all available information into prices. He speculated that Bitcoin might have already absorbed the impact of Trump’s pro-crypto initiatives.
Potential Euphoria and Cyclical Peaks
If the market has indeed priced in these factors, Severino predicts that this “new paradigm” could cultivate an atmosphere of euphoria and mark a cyclical peak when Trump assumes office. Essentially, Trump’s inauguration could signal the climax of the Bitcoin bull run, with the corrective wave potentially commencing upon his swearing-in.
Historical Contexts: Previous ‘New Paradigms’ and Cycle Peaks
Tony Severino drew parallels to previous instances where the notion of a “new paradigm” was prevalent. He pointed out that such periods often coincided with cyclical peaks in Bitcoin’s history. For example, the launch of CME Futures spurred expectations that institutional access to BTC would infuse substantial capital into the market. However, the reality diverged, as it initiated a bear market instead. Similarly, the public listing of Coinbase incited optimism about Bitcoin’s potential to easily surpass $100,000, yet it marked another cyclical peak in the bull run.
Current Market Status
As of the latest data, Bitcoin is trading around $99,200, reflecting a slight decline over the past 24 hours as reported by CoinMarketCap. This fluctuation underscores the volatile nature of the cryptocurrency market and the importance of informed analysis.
