Este artículo también está disponible en español.
Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, has expressed a grim outlook for Bitcoin’s near-term price movement. In a recent post on his X profile, Hayes shared his market strategy, stating, “BTC is heavy, I’m gunning for sub $50k this weekend. I took a cheeky short. Pray for my soul, for I am a degen.”
Why Hayes Possibly Expects A Bitcoin Price Crash
While Hayes did not provide detailed reasons for his prediction, the timing coincides with the release of significant US economic indicators this Friday. Recently, US jobs data has become a focal point for market analysts. The Kobeissi Letter analysts have commented on this trend, highlighting the increasing impact of unemployment data on Federal Reserve policies.
Related Reading
In a post on X, The Kobeissi Letter stated, “Prediction markets are now pricing in four rate cuts in 2024, or 100 bps of cuts, for the first time since the August 5th crash, according to Kalshi. Over the last two days, prediction markets have priced in an additional rate cut in 2024. This comes as labor market data has deteriorated across the board. It’s clear that unemployment data is quickly becoming the primary driver of Fed policy, along with inflation.”
According to these analysts, today’s jobs report will be crucial in determining whether the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates by 50 bps or 25 bps. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for September 17-18, 2024. “If the jobs report is in line with expectations, or better, we believe a 25 bps rate cut is coming. Interest rate expectations appear to be shifting too dovish again,” the analysts reported.
Earlier this week, the deteriorating job market was highlighted by new data. The JOLTs survey revealed that US job openings fell to 7.67 million in July from 7.91 million in June, marking the lowest level since January 2021. Analysts had expected around 8.09 million, making the actual data a significant miss.
Related Reading
Since March 2022, job openings have decreased by an alarming 4.51 million, or 38%. The Kobeissi Letter described this reduction as “MASSIVE.” They added, “The most notable drop was in construction openings, which fell to 248,000 in July, their lowest since October 2020. Meanwhile, the ratio of job vacancies to unemployed workers fell to 1.07 in July, comparable to 2018 levels.”
This backdrop of weakening job data and revised economic forecasts has undoubtedly contributed to the negative sentiment in the Bitcoin market. Hayes seems to be anticipating more adverse macroeconomic data, which he believes could drive the Bitcoin price below $50,000.
Is $46,000 The Bottom?
Adding to the bearish outlook, renowned trader Peter Brandt also provided his technical analysis. He observed what he terms an “inverted expanding triangle or a megaphone” pattern in Bitcoin’s weekly chart. Brandt highlighted the potential for Bitcoin to test a lower boundary around $46,000, underscoring a dominance of selling pressure over buying interest in the market.
Brandt noted, “This is called an inverted expanding triangle or a megaphone. A test of the lower boundary would be around $46,000. A massive thrust into new ATHs is required to get this bull market back on track BTC. Selling is stronger than buying in this pattern.”
As of the latest data, Bitcoin was trading at $55,767.
Stay tuned for more updates on Bitcoin’s price movements and market analysis.
