Leading analysts at Bernstein have made intriguing predictions regarding the future price of Bitcoin (BTC), contingent on the outcome of the upcoming US presidential election. According to their insights, significant divergences in BTC prices could occur depending on whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris emerges victorious. Currently, Trump holds a slight edge over Harris, leading by 52% to 47% on the decentralized forecasting platform Polymarket.
How Will a Trump or Harris Victory Affect the Price of Bitcoin?
Analysts at Bernstein have characterized Bitcoin as a “Trump trade,” suggesting that the results of the US presidential election in November could be pivotal for the cryptocurrency sector. Should Republican candidate Donald Trump win, analysts project that Bitcoin could soar to unprecedented levels, potentially reaching the $80,000 to $90,000 range by the end of Q4.
Conversely, if current Vice President Kamala Harris secures a win, the analysts foresee a bearish trend for Bitcoin. They predict that BTC could break below the current $50,000 floor, returning to test the $30,000 to $40,000 range. These levels would represent a regression to the period when the momentum for a spot Bitcoin ETF first began.
What Underlies This Divergence?
The analysts have delved into the reasons behind this expected divergence. They note that the crypto industry has experienced “more warmth” from Trump. “Crypto industry leaders approached the Harris campaign with a more open mind,” they said. Despite this, they expect the difference between the two political outcomes to be significant, reflecting hopes for a more constructive policy.
Trump has been vocal about his intentions to make the US the “Bitcoin and crypto capital of the world.” He has also proposed transforming the US into a BTC mining “powerhouse” and appointing a crypto-friendly SEC chairman. Additionally, Trump’s policies include the creation of a national strategic Bitcoin reserve. In stark contrast, Harris has not addressed cryptocurrency in any of her speeches or policy statements.
Crypto-Friendly Election Result, Positive Regulatory Environment ‘Not Priced In’
Over the past three years, the crypto market has encountered substantial challenges, including high-interest rates draining liquidity from decentralized finance platforms and regulatory obstacles hindering innovation. Despite these hurdles, Bitcoin has shown resilience, appreciating by 112% in the past year.
Analysts predict that a favorable regulatory environment could eliminate risk barriers for financial institutions’ participation, enabling digital assets to compete more effectively with traditional assets for institutional flows. They believe that the market has not yet priced in the positive impact of a crypto-friendly election result.
Recent data from Polymarket indicates a shift in US presidential odds, with Trump regaining a five-point lead, holding a 52% chance of victory compared to Harris’ 47%. In critical swing states such as Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, Trump currently leads Harris, while Harris holds leads in Michigan and Wisconsin. However, national polling data remains mixed. “Elections remain hard to call. But if you’re long on crypto, you’re probably making a Trump trade,” analysts concluded.
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