As the world of finance buzzes with anticipation, Bitcoin experts are keenly observing the latest developments from President-elect Donald Trump. Recently, Trump criticized the current Federal Reserve policy, describing the interest rates as “far too high” despite the ongoing inflationary pressures. Speaking from his Mar-a-Lago club, Trump expressed concerns about inheriting a challenging economic situation from the outgoing administration. He noted that officials seem to be “trying everything they can to make it more difficult” for his incoming team.
These pointed remarks, made less than two weeks before Trump’s inauguration, have sparked discussions about a potential shift in US monetary policy. This shift could significantly impact Bitcoin and other risk assets in the upcoming year.
The 2017 Trump Playbook: Dollar “Too Strong”, Bitcoin Up?
While the economic and geopolitical landscape has evolved since Trump’s first term, some market analysts see echoes of his 2017 rhetoric. During that period, Trump criticized the US dollar as being “too strong,” a stance that preceded a noticeable decline in the currency’s value. The US Dollar Index (DXY) reached a peak near 104 in early January 2017, only to embark on a downward trajectory that continued into early 2018, eventually bottoming out around 98.
This sharp decline in the dollar coincided with a broader risk-on environment, igniting rallies in equities and the Bitcoin and crypto markets. Julien Bittel, the Head of Macro Research at Global Macro Investor (GMI), highlighted a direct comparison on X, drawing parallels between the current situation and Trump’s previous statements.
Impact on Bitcoin and the Crypto Market
Bittel commented, “The last time Trump said something was ‘too high,’ it was the dollar – back in January 2017, just days before his inauguration.” He recalled Trump’s words: “Our companies can’t compete with them now because our currency is too strong. And it’s killing us.” Last year, Trump also described the recent dollar strength as a “tremendous burden on US businesses.” Bittel added that Trump understands the impact of a strong dollar, noting that the same logic applies to high interest rates, which suppress exports, hurt corporate earnings, and slow economic growth.
Discussing the implications for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, Bittel concluded, “What happened next? Well, the dollar began a significant decline, setting the stage for one of the most pivotal macro moves we’ve seen in years – triggering a melt-up in risk assets. Déjà vu? I think so. Let’s see how it plays out.”
Speculation on Dollar Trends
Bittel is not alone in speculating that the DXY may have already peaked, echoing its 2017 topping pattern. Steve Donzé, Deputy CIO for Multi Asset at Pictet Asset Management Japan, shared a widely discussed chart on X. He remarked, “On time. Ready for pushback,” while overlaying recent DXY movements with the currency’s trajectory in early 2017. The chart suggests a similar pattern that could foreshadow renewed dollar weakness in the coming weeks.
In a separate post, financial analyst Silver Surfer (@SilverSurfer_23) highlighted a curious timing overlap: “DXY topped on January 3rd, 2017—18 days before Trump’s Inauguration. DXY looks to have topped on January 2nd, 2025—19 days before Trump’s Inauguration.” He characterized the parallel as “crazy history repeating,” suggesting a correlation between the DXY’s path before both inaugurations.
Potential Implications for Bitcoin
These analogies are fueling speculation that a renewed dollar slump could create an environment favorable to risk assets. If the dollar indeed enters a new downtrend—similar to 2017–2018—Bitcoin could benefit from a surge in liquidity and speculative interest. At press time, BTC was trading at $94,950.
