As we near the year’s end, Bitcoin (BTC) is soaring to unprecedented heights, fueling optimistic forecasts for the remainder of the cycle. Bitfinex’s recent insights shed light on the potential timeline for BTC’s peak and the possible upward journey remaining for this leading cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin’s ‘Unique’ Cycle
In its latest Alpha Report, Bitfinex emphasized the significant advancements in the crypto industry’s adoption and mainstream acknowledgment this year, setting this cycle apart from previous ones. The introduction and rising institutional demand for Bitcoin and Ethereum spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have exceeded expectations, drawing a “new class of investors” into the cryptocurrency arena.
The report highlights this cycle as “unique,” as these new investors, ushered in by ETFs and growing confidence in the sector, propelled BTC’s price to a new all-time high (ATH) even before the Halving event. Historically, this event has driven the flagship crypto to a new peak 5-7 months later. Additionally, there is a growing interest in diversifying national reserves with cryptocurrencies, with multiple jurisdictions globally contemplating the implementation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve following the crypto’s recent robust performance.
Bitfinex analysts believe these factors have resulted in smaller corrections for BTC compared to previous cycles, a trend that is expected to persist throughout the ongoing bull run:
In the current bull cycle, which began around mid to late 2023, Bitcoin’s corrections have been notably smaller, especially since the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024. The consistent buying pressure from institutional and ETF demand is anticipated to maintain this pattern, potentially limiting the severity and duration of future corrections.
Furthermore, the incoming crypto-friendly US administration has contributed to the swelling bullish sentiment enveloping the industry, catalyzing a massive post-election rally. Consequently, the crypto market has expanded by 130% year-to-date (YTD), reaching a market capitalization of $3.69 trillion, marking a nearly 70% growth this quarter.
What’s Next For Bitcoin This Cycle?
The report highlights Bitcoin’s impressive performance, showcasing a 573% surge from its 2022 low of $15,487. The leading cryptocurrency has also seen a 130% YTD increase, driven by this year’s industry milestones.
Earlier this month, Bitcoin surpassed the $100,000 mark for the first time, achieving a new ATH close to the $110,000 level. According to Bitfinex, the cryptocurrency still has various levels to conquer in 2025, as historical data suggests the market is currently mid-cycle.
This data indicates that BTC’s price is likely to peak around the third and fourth quarters of 2025, typically occurring approximately 450 days post-halving. Meanwhile, metrics such as Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV), Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL), and the Bull-Bear market indicator suggest that “we remain in the bull phase but are far from euphoric peaks.”
Bitfinex also pointed out that the Pi Cycle Top Indicator has historically been effective in timing cycle highs, forecasting peaks within a three-day window. Predictions from the previous cycle suggest that Bitcoin could peak between mid-2025 and early 2026.
Possible Scenarios for Bitcoin’s Future
If Bitcoin follows the 2021 cycle pattern, it may witness a 40% increase, potentially reaching $339,000 and peaking around June or July 2025. However, the report notes that the flagship crypto has been exhibiting a trend of diminishing returns over successive cycles.
Based on this trend, Bitcoin’s price might experience a 15% to 20% increase, positioning it within the $160,000-$200,000 range instead. Conversely, if the cryptocurrency mirrors the 2017 cycle pattern, BTC’s rally could extend until January 2026, peaking at $229,000 with similar diminishing returns.
As of this writing, BTC is trading at $107,729, just 0.3% below its ATH.
