In recent days, Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a remarkable surge, capturing the attention of investors and enthusiasts alike. A significant number of users on the crypto betting site Kalshi are optimistic, predicting that Bitcoin could reach the $100,000 mark before the conclusion of 2024. According to the latest data from the event contract market, 60% of participants are confident that Bitcoin will achieve this milestone by January, while 45% are hopeful for this achievement as early as November.
Analyst Predicts Six-Figure Bitcoin Prices by Year-End
Kalshi, established in 2021, offers a platform for users to speculate on various outcomes, from economic data releases to election results. This platform has attracted significant attention, particularly due to its legal confrontation with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This legal battle concluded with a favorable outcome for Kalshi, enabling US users to engage in the presidential election betting markets.
Since the US presidential election on November 5, Bitcoin’s value has surged by more than 28%. This outcome is perceived as a positive development for cryptocurrencies, especially with President-elect Donald Trump indicating his support for the industry and hinting at more favorable regulations.
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Mike Colonnese, an analyst from H.C. Wainwright, shared his insights on the current market conditions. He stated, “The strong positive sentiment is likely to persist through the remainder of 2024, with Bitcoin prices potentially reaching the six-figure mark by the end of this year.” Colonnese further emphasized that Bitcoin has entered a phase of “price discovery” following its breakthrough past all-time highs last Wednesday morning, subsequent to Trump’s election victory announcement.
This blend of market enthusiasm and regulatory optimism, he suggests, could propel Bitcoin further, enticing new investors and solidifying its position in the financial sector by the end of 2024.
UBS Warns of Historical Volatility
Despite the optimistic forecasts from betting markets and investors for Bitcoin reaching $100,000, Wall Street analysts are urging caution due to the “speculative” nature of cryptocurrencies. Solita Marcelli, the chief investment officer for the Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management, highlighted this concern in a client note on Tuesday. “We continue to view crypto assets as a speculative trade rather than a strategic investment in portfolios,” she asserted.
Marcelli expressed skepticism about the potential for digital assets to significantly penetrate disruptive real-world applications, noting their tendency to increase portfolio volatility. UBS pointed out that since 2014, Bitcoin has experienced three substantial drawdowns exceeding 70%, with an average recovery period of three years.
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On a more encouraging note, other cryptocurrencies also experienced gains on Wednesday. Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and even Dogecoin (DOGE) exhibited upward movement. Dogecoin, in particular, surged notably after Trump announced that Tesla CEO Elon Musk and former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy would lead a newly established “Department of Government Efficiency,” cleverly abbreviated as DOGE.
However, crypto-related equities did not emulate Bitcoin’s bullish trend. Stocks such as Coinbase (COIN) and Robinhood (HOOD) paused after recent rallies, with Coinbase shares falling about 2% on Wednesday, while Robinhood remained relatively unchanged.
The daily chart indicates that BTC’s price reached new record peaks for five consecutive days. After achieving a new all-time high of $93,000 on Wednesday, BTC has since settled at the $90,350 level, yet remains up 20% for the week.
