Este artículo también está disponible en español.
Renowned macro analyst Alex Krüger has recently posited that Bitcoin is “highly likely” in a supercycle. Sharing his insights via the social platform X, Krüger emphasized the unique trajectory that Bitcoin is currently experiencing, marking a departure from its previous market cycles.
Understanding the Concept of a Bitcoin Supercycle
A Bitcoin supercycle is a theoretical phase where the cryptocurrency’s price is anticipated to rise significantly, surpassing the typical boom-and-bust cycles that have characterized its history. This concept envisions a prolonged period of growth, driven by increased mainstream adoption, leading to a more robust and lasting upward trend than the standard four-year halving cycle traditionally followed by Bitcoin.
Is Bitcoin Currently Experiencing a Supercycle?
In light of President-elect Donald Trump’s unexpected pro-Bitcoin stance and his intention to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, Krüger remarked, “Do yourself a favor and stop comparing this cycle to prior cycles. Bitcoin is highly likely in a supercycle. The crypto industry has just experienced its most dramatic change in history, a fundamentally driven 180-degree turn,” he elaborated.
The Rapid Evolution of the Crypto Sector
Krüger highlighted the swift transformation of the Bitcoin and crypto sector, noting its transition “from a barely legal pariah detested by the state, to one of the top industries embraced by the state” within a matter of weeks. He described this change as “so extreme it’s hard to find comparables in modern times.”
Historical Parallels and Market Implications
Drawing parallels to historical financial shifts, Krüger underscored the transformative impact of the 1970s on gold. “Perhaps gold in the 1970s is one. The 1970s was a transformative decade for gold. Nixon’s ending of the Gold Standard in 1971, dismantling Bretton Woods, sent gold surging from $35 per ounce to $850 in 1981,” he explained.
Timing Bitcoin’s Potential Peak
Krüger also discussed the timing of Bitcoin’s potential peak, suggesting that anticipating a major local top around March is reasonable based on his previous analyses. “This would heavily depend on the slope of ascent, funding rates, and the broader economy. But one should not equate a major local top with the beginning of the bear market,” he noted.
While acknowledging the possibility of a bear market, he emphasized that “the conditions for it are not yet there. It’s also too soon to be expecting a top. Bitcoin bull-runs always last for many months. It’s only been 33 days since Trump unleashed the Kraken.”
Market Psychology and Skepticism
Highlighting the precarious nature of market sentiment, Krüger added a cautionary note: “The moment you all finally believe what I just wrote, then it will [be] the top.” With this statement, Krüger underscores the psychological factors that often influence market dynamics, particularly the collective belief in market peaks.
Community Reactions and Opposing Views
X user Paradox Parrot (@Paradoxparrot) commented on Krüger’s assertion, stating, “Agree. But, ‘this time is different’ is a good way to round trip back down.” In response, Krüger acknowledged the cyclical skepticism surrounding altcoins, asserting, “Sure. Alts will round trip most of it. It’s the nature of the beast. Mind this time has already been proven different multiple times at many levels. I’ve anticipated and covered that here in detail since mid-2023. By the way, alts round trip for two reasons. A) lack of fundamentally driven demand. And more importantly B) illiquidity (that’s also why they go up in such a vertical manner).”
Contrasting Perspectives on the Supercycle Hypothesis
Despite Krüger’s optimistic outlook, not all experts concur with the supercycle hypothesis. Chris Burnsike, partner at Placeholder VC, offered a contrasting view on X on December 7: “Bookmark it for later: a supercycle is never real – everything is cyclical, though cycles can vary. […] Buying into the idea of a supercycle is how you never sell and roundtrip. Ask anyone who never sold in 2021.”
At the time of this analysis, Bitcoin traded at $98,287.
