In recent developments, the Bitcoin price has experienced a noticeable decline, with five consecutive red daily candles emerging since it narrowly missed its all-time high of $73,620 last Tuesday. This has resulted in a 7% decrease in the BTC price, a trend that is clearly visible on the weekly chart. The chart illustrates a significant bearish weekly candle, known as a gravestone doji.
Is a Trend Reversal on the Horizon for Bitcoin?
Chartered Market Technician (CMT) Aksel Kibar, in a recent analysis, highlighted the similarities between the BTCUSD weekly candle and that of GOLD. He emphasized that while this pattern indicates a potential reversal, it should not be solely relied upon. Kibar advised that it is more effective to combine this pattern with a subsequent weak candle to confirm a trend reversal. According to market narratives, although bulls may attempt to push prices to new highs during trading sessions, bears often manage to bring prices back to near the opening level by the session’s close.
Will Bitcoin Reach $75,000 by the End of November?
Despite the recent downturn, the Singapore-based crypto trading firm QCP Capital maintains a positive outlook in its latest investor note. The firm points to significant shifts in both political prediction markets and the BTC derivatives market as indicators of potential growth.
Political Prediction Markets and Bitcoin
QCP Capital’s analysis reveals that odds in decentralized prediction markets like Polymarket are aligning more closely with actual poll estimates. Notably, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are engaged in a competitive race. Polymarket still slightly favors Trump at 55%, down from 66% a week ago, suggesting a narrowing margin that better reflects mainstream polling data.
Cautious Sentiment in the Cryptocurrency Market
The firm also observes a cautious sentiment prevailing in the cryptocurrency market. Over the weekend, Bitcoin exhibited sideways price action, and there was a notable decrease in leveraged perpetual futures positioning—from $30 billion to $26 billion across exchanges. This suggests that traders are adopting a wait-and-see approach, possibly due to uncertainties surrounding macroeconomic factors or the impending election.
Potential for Significant Bitcoin Price Movement
Despite the current market hesitancy, QCP Capital identifies potential for a significant upward movement in Bitcoin’s price. The firm poses the question of whether this is “the calm before a break from the multi-month range and push toward all-time highs.” Supporting this outlook, QCP has observed an increase in topside positioning, with substantial buying of end-November $75,000 call options since last Friday. This surge in call options at that strike price indicates that traders are positioning for a substantial rally by the end of November.
Options Activity and Election Day Implications
Additionally, QCP Capital highlights increased activity in options tied to the election date. The firm notes that “election-date options positions are also rising,” with Friday implied volatility exceeding 87%, even as realized volatility remains at 40%. The elevated implied volatility suggests that options traders anticipate significant price swings around the election period.
Bitcoin’s Future Amid Political Uncertainty
Looking ahead, QCP Capital expects Bitcoin’s spot price to remain range-bound until the US election results provide more clarity. The firm stated that they “expect spot to chop around this range until we get more clarity on the election results this week,” adding that “a Trump win is likely to cause a knee-jerk reaction higher, and vice versa if Kamala wins.”
As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $68,852, reflecting the market’s current cautious stance and the anticipation of upcoming political developments.
