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In a detailed analysis shared on X, the crypto analyst known as Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) provides a comprehensive macro outlook on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). Astronomer suggests that the next significant market peak—and possibly the ideal moment to “sell it all”—could emerge in the latter half of 2025.
“Another month and a half has passed, and the full macro breakout thesis is really pushing many eyes onto the crypto charts now,” Astronomer remarks. Reflecting on past predictions, he notes, “Last time we posted our plan of a Q4 upside breakout, BTC was at $58k and ETH was at $2.3k.” Since then, Bitcoin has experienced a 20% increase and Ethereum a 13% rise, despite opposing beliefs from many low timeframe technical analysts before the full breakout occurred.
Predicting the End of the Current Crypto Bull Run
Astronomer highlights the limitations of traditional order flow and price action analysis on higher time frames, prompting him to explore “edge elsewhere” through diverse data analyses. “We had our thesis in place, with multiple data analyses supporting not only that the low is in, but also that we likely would see a high timeframe breakout,” he explains.
Analyzing Bitcoin’s Market Cycles
Delving into Bitcoin’s macro perspective, Astronomer employs a combination of time, sentiment, and volume to pinpoint weekly cycle lows. “The Middle East capitulation event [Israel-Iran tensions] clearly formed that, timed well 28 weeks after the previous weekly cycle low,” he observes. With the next weekly low anticipated in late December, he foresees “still room for upside” and expects “price [will] accelerate here.”
Addressing market psychology, he warns, “The market always finds a way to escape on the low timeframes as most traders (‘investors’) find themselves trapped into short-term memory fallacy and simply forget the high timeframe picture.” Astronomer stands firm in his forecast, asserting, “Overall peak is still expected in the second half of 2025, where I think the true time to ‘sell it all’ may occur.”
Ethereum’s Distinctive Cyclical Patterns
For Ethereum, Astronomer notes a similar but more compressed cyclical pattern compared to Bitcoin. “ETH typically drops later near the 4-year cycle peaks (2014, 2018, 2022) and has its surge also later in the 4-year cycle (2016, 2020), making its moves seem more aggressive,” he explained.
Current Sentiment Towards Ethereum
He also discusses the prevailing sentiment towards Ethereum and other layer-1 protocols: “It’s clear by now that ‘useful’ coins are deemed ‘useless’, typical things called for when price doesn’t move. Yet anyone who even remotely used ETH knows what it can do.” Astronomer attributes the stagnation in utility growth to cyclical and sentimental factors, noting, “We’ve seen massive hype around it in 2021 and that simply hasn’t been digested yet.”
Potential Risks and Market Disruptions
While maintaining a bullish outlook, Astronomer acknowledges the possibility of unforeseen events that could disrupt the market. “Despite all the data, there still always is a small chance I’m wrong,” he admitted. He cites potential global crises like “World War 3 (WW3)” or “the end of a nation,” cautioning that such events “can always pull down the market significantly,” possibly causing Bitcoin to drop “back below $50k.”
However, he remains committed to his strategy: “Cycles are powerful in nature, and we’ve shown why those events shouldn’t faze you. I will indeed hold on in that case, hedged with large shorts well-timed and just continue to ride out the cycle as I do think price will recover from there.”
Overall, the analyst advises traders to maintain focus on the bigger picture despite short-term market fluctuations: “You’ll start to question why… But so far, so good.” When questioned by a user, “Wow! You think BTC could hit $350k? That’s incredible!”, Astronomer clarified his stance: “I don’t think so. Optical illusion on the chart. It’s more $150-200k I think we can reach.”
At press time, BTC traded at $66,475.
