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10x Research, a renowned digital asset research platform for traders and institutions, has issued a dire forecast for the price of Bitcoin (BTC). By examining current market conditions and Bitcoin’s recent price dynamics, the research firm predicts a substantial price crash to $45,000 in the near future.
Bitcoin $45,000 Price Crash Incoming
10x Research has published a comprehensive report outlining several market factors that collectively suggest a potential price decline for Bitcoin to new lows. Amidst a period of correction and volatility in the broader crypto market, 10x Research posits that Bitcoin could drop as low as $45,000 during this cycle.
Factors Contributing to the Price Decline
One of the primary reasons for this bearish prediction is the recent changes observed in Bitcoin’s active addresses. Markus Thielen, the Head of Research at 10x Research, has presented several reasons for this pessimistic outlook on BTC. Thielen noted that Bitcoin addresses peaked in November 2023 but experienced a sharp decline in the First Quarter (Q1) of 2024.
According to Messari’s reports, on November 20, 2023, Bitcoin’s active address count surged above 983,000 and even reached 1.2 million at one point. The network maintained this range until April. However, as of September 2, 2024, active addresses have drastically decreased to 596,940.
Impact of Reduced Network Activity
This significant drop in Bitcoin addresses indicates a reduction in network activity and a possible decline in interest and demand among investors. Thielen further revealed that short-term holders began selling their BTC in April, while long-term holders took their profits, suggesting that the market had reached its cycle top.
In addition to the above, the price of Bitcoin has fallen from its all-time high above $73,000 in March to its current level of $55,246, according to CoinMarketCap. This price decline corresponds with the decrease in active addresses and the overall market volatility.
Role of Spot Bitcoin ETFs
10x Research also reported that outflows from Spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have added to BTC’s downward pressure, contributing to their pessimistic price projection. In the past eight days, Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded a substantial $1.2 billion in outflows from the 11 listed US Bitcoin ETFs. This massive liquidation marks the longest run of outflows since the launch of Bitcoin ETFs on January 10, 2024.
Economic Factors in Play
Moreover, the current state of the United States (US) economy also paints a potentially bearish picture for Bitcoin. The weak US economy and ongoing futures liquidations are among the many factors that 10x Research believes could drive the price of Bitcoin down to $45,000.
BTC Faces Toughest Month In September
In a recent X (formerly Twitter) post, Dan Tapiero, the founder and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of 10T Holdings, addressed the current challenges facing the crypto market. Tapiero noted that September has historically been a difficult month for Bitcoin, often characterized by poor performance or heightened selling pressures.
Market Consolidation and Future Outlook
Tapiero disclosed that Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) have been stuck in a “painful consolidation” period since March. Despite Bitcoin’s underperformance this September, Tapiero remains confident that the market is gearing up for a major bullish trend, advising investors to HODL their assets.
As the crypto market continues to evolve, it remains to be seen how these factors will ultimately impact Bitcoin’s price. For now, traders and investors should stay informed and be prepared for potential market shifts.
Stay tuned for more updates and analyses on the ever-changing crypto market landscape.
