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Bitcoin’s mid-September rally has decelerated as the month draws to a close. Despite concluding September with a green monthly candle close, the cryptocurrency has dipped below the critical $65,000 price mark once more. This downturn has shifted the fear and greed index from greed back to neutral sentiment, causing some investors to second-guess their positions. However, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju remains resolute in his bullish outlook.
Bitcoin Still in a Bull Cycle
According to Ki Young Ju, Bitcoin is in the midst of a bull cycle. This is encouraging news for Bitcoin investors, as the crypto industry is transitioning into the historically bullish fourth quarter of the year.
Technical Analysis Supports Bullish Outlook
Ki Young Ju, a steadfast Bitcoin investor, remains unfazed by recent price fluctuations. His confidence is rooted not in mere speculation but in robust technical analysis and data. He bases his optimism on the Bitcoin growth rate difference, which offers a unique perspective on the cryptocurrency’s trajectory. This metric compares Bitcoin’s market cap to its realized cap, providing insight into its bullish or bearish strength.
Understanding Market Cap and Realized Cap
The market cap of a cryptocurrency represents the total value of all coins in circulation, calculated by multiplying the current price by the total supply. In contrast, the realized cap considers the actual value paid for each BTC in circulation based on the price at which each coin last moved. A higher market cap growth rate indicates that the spot price of the average coin has increased compared to the last time it moved.
Ki Young Ju shared a Bitcoin technical chart on social media platform X, highlighting that Bitcoin’s market cap is still growing faster than its realized cap. This trend points to a continuing bull cycle. Notably, in an earlier analysis, Ki Young Ju mentioned that this trend, which began in late 2023, typically lasts for around two years.
Implications for Bitcoin’s Future
Based on historical bull cycle trends, Bitcoin is expected to remain in a bull cycle for at least another year. Current fundamentals also indicate steady growth for Bitcoin, bolstered by continuous inflows from institutional investors.
Institutional Investors and Bitcoin ETFs
Institutional investors play a significant role in Bitcoin’s sustained price growth. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which concluded last week with the largest inflow ($494.27 million) since July 22, have started the new week on a positive note. They recorded $61.3 million in net inflows yesterday, signaling potential for further growth. Institutional involvement, particularly through Spot Bitcoin ETFs, is a crucial factor in Bitcoin’s continued upward trajectory.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $64,080.
Conclusion
Despite recent price fluctuations and a return to neutral sentiment in the fear and greed index, the overall outlook for Bitcoin remains bullish. Technical analysis and fundamental factors both support the continuation of the current bull cycle, with significant contributions from institutional investors and Bitcoin ETFs. As the cryptocurrency market moves into the fourth quarter, historically a strong period for Bitcoin, investors have reason to remain optimistic about its future performance.
