The current landscape of Dogecoin’s price is marked by a distinctly bearish pattern on the 4-hour chart. This development calls for investor caution, following a fleeting bullish breakout that failed to meet optimistic expectations. Between November 12 and 19, Dogecoin formed a bullish falling wedge pattern. However, the subsequent breakout on November 19 did not sustain the initial excitement among traders.
Understanding the Current Dogecoin Price Movement
Despite the breakout, crypto analyst Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) accurately predicted its weakness. The memecoin’s price faced a sharp rejection at a significant resistance level, notably the macro 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. Kevin highlighted that until this level is “broken cleanly and violently,” there is little reason for excitement. He further noted that Bitcoin’s (BTC) movement is crucial, suggesting that Dogecoin’s next significant step will likely align with Bitcoin surpassing the $100,000 mark. “Until then, everything’s just gonna mosey around,” he observed.
Potential Scenarios for Dogecoin’s Future
Kevin advised traders to moderate their enthusiasm, stating, “Please control your excitement as there is nothing in the short term to be excited about. BTC is still at major resistance and so is Dogecoin. Nothing has broken yet.” He underscored the importance of Bitcoin’s movements, adding, “It’s more important to provide technical analysis on BTC than on Dogecoin at the moment. DOGE is just trading sideways, waiting for Bitcoin to make a decision on higher or lower. Where Bitcoin goes, Doge will go in the short term.”
In his analysis of the 4-hour chart, Kevin identified a “nasty triple top” at the macro 0.786 Fibonacci level for Dogecoin—a bearish signal indicating potential downward pressure. He cautioned that if a correction to $0.30 occurs, as he previously suggested, “a lot of blind perma bulls are gonna need to do some explaining.”
Technical Indicators and Bearish Patterns
A triple top is a bearish reversal pattern in technical analysis that signals a potential shift from an uptrend to a downtrend. This pattern emerges when the price hits the same resistance level three times, each time retreating after failing to break through. Dogecoin’s repeated inability to surpass the 0.786 Fib at $0.41 indicates weakening bullish momentum in the short term.
Key Levels to Watch
Kevin emphasized that Dogecoin hasn’t truly broken out yet: “Until it breaks the macro 0.786 Fib cleanly at $0.41, it’s just trading sideways.” Looking ahead, he outlined a bullish scenario contingent on overcoming this key resistance level. “If Dogecoin breaks that macro 0.786 Fib with force, then $0.80 to $0.85 is on the table. Lots of work to do though. Need BTC to push higher,” he explained.
Long-term Outlook and Strategic Considerations
For several days, Kevin has been forecasting a deeper correction for Dogecoin. The triple top formation and rejection at the 0.786 Fibonacci level align with his primary hypothesis. He outlined his initial price target, stating, “A level we will want to hold for Dogecoin is the $0.30 to $0.26 range, which is the golden pocket retrace levels. That’s a 30-40% correction from the local top, which in a bull market is a perfect size correction.”
From a longer-term perspective, Kevin highlighted the significance of the upcoming monthly candle close. “The next big goal for Dogecoin is to close a monthly candle in 11 days above $0.335. That would make the highest monthly candle close of all time for DOGE, and I will be keeping my eye closely on this,” he stated.
As of the latest update, Dogecoin is trading at $0.39, reflecting the ongoing volatility and potential for further shifts in the market.
