As the final quarter of 2024 approaches, Bitcoin’s price forecast is a hot topic filled with mixed predictions. However, several pivotal factors could influence Bitcoin’s trajectory in the upcoming months, and experts are actively speculating on possible developments.
Short-Term Impact of the U.S. Election on Bitcoin
A significant factor affecting Bitcoin’s price in Q4 is the U.S. presidential election. Experts, including Mark Yusko, suggest that a potential win for Vice President Kamala Harris could initially have a negative impact on Bitcoin. During an interview with Thinking Crypto, Yusko voiced concerns that if Harris were to win and SEC Chairman Gary Gensler were to retain his position, stricter regulations might be enforced. Such regulatory changes could unsettle the market, potentially leading to a downturn in Bitcoin’s price.
Long-Term Bitcoin Bullish Outlook
Conversely, from a long-term perspective, Yusko remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s trajectory. If the existing administration continues to endorse policies centered around money printing and deficit spending, Bitcoin might gain a significant advantage. The continuous printing of money could lead to the devaluation of the U.S. dollar. In scenarios of rising inflation, Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold,” may see its value increase, attracting investors seeking a hedge against inflation.
Bitcoin’s Parabolic Move: Q4 2024 to Q2 2025
Looking further into the future, Bitcoin is on the brink of concluding its four-year cycle. Historically, Bitcoin tends to undergo a parabolic surge approximately 178 days following each halving event, with the latest occurring earlier this year. This phase of the cycle could result in substantial price movements, particularly as 2024 comes to a close. Mark Yusko anticipates that Bitcoin could achieve new record highs by mid-December, potentially entering the six-figure realm, with prices ranging from $110,000 to $120,000. Such an achievement would represent a monumental milestone for Bitcoin, especially as institutional investors and Bitcoin ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds) exert upward pressure on buying activities. The holiday season frequently brings increased attention to Bitcoin as discussions among families and individuals spark interest, leading to heightened demand.
However, the extent of any subsequent correction will largely depend on how high Bitcoin rises in the short term. Should Bitcoin’s price soar beyond $150,000, a more pronounced correction could ensue, with the potential for Bitcoin to experience a 60-80% decline in the forthcoming bear cycle.
Bitcoin’s Fair Value and Market Cycles
Another critical factor to consider is Bitcoin’s fair value. Yusko estimates that the current fair value of Bitcoin falls within the $80,000 to $100,000 range. As the network expands and more institutional capital is invested, Bitcoin’s fair value is likely to increase over time. Nonetheless, as Bitcoin’s price surpasses its fair value, speculative buying may propel prices even further. A correction is likely to occur once the market recognizes that prices have diverged from their intrinsic value.
In conclusion, while the short-term outlook for Bitcoin remains uncertain, largely due to political factors such as the U.S. election, the long-term perspective appears more favorable. The cyclical nature of Bitcoin, coupled with its perceived role as a hedge against inflation, suggests that it could reach new heights in the coming months. However, investors should remain cautious of potential corrections, particularly as prices move beyond fair value. As always, staying informed and considering expert opinions is crucial for navigating the ever-evolving landscape of Bitcoin investments.
