Sam Bankman-Fried, often referred to as SBF, the former CEO of the now-defunct cryptocurrency exchange FTX, has become the center of a swirling storm of speculation. The rumors are primarily focused on the possibility of him receiving a presidential pardon. With SBF facing a long-term prison sentence for his involvement in financial crimes, these rumors gained momentum following remarks made by billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk. Musk notably expressed his surprise, stating he would be “shocked if this doesn’t happen.”
SBF to Get Presidential Pardon?
The downfall of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX, whose empire crumbled in November 2022, has been a significant event in the crypto world. Following a comprehensive five-week trial concluding in November 2023, SBF was convicted of all seven charges levied against him. Consequently, he received a 25-year prison sentence, although the U.S. government had initially sought a much harsher sentence ranging between 40 and 50 years. In contrast, SBF’s legal defense had advocated for a considerably reduced sentence of only six years.
The speculation about a potential early pardon from President Biden intensified when Elon Musk responded to discussions on social media platform X. Musk’s statement, “I will be shocked if this doesn’t happen,” added fuel to the fire. Despite the buzz, Polymarket, a well-regarded prediction market platform, estimates the probability of Biden pardoning SBF at a mere 5%.
Despite his conviction, the notion of a pardon is gaining traction, largely due to SBF’s known connections to the Democratic Party. Being one of the party’s largest donors, some speculate that his political ties could play a role in securing either a reduced sentence or a complete pardon. Additionally, with FTX’s bankruptcy proceedings slated to commence in January 2025, some argue that a pardon could be pivotal in allowing the nation to move beyond the scandal.
Elon Musk Weighs In on the Possibility
The buzz around a potential pardon was further amplified following comments from Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk. His remarks on the social media platform X suggested he would be “shocked if this doesn’t happen,” thus adding credibility to the ongoing rumors.
Considering President Joe Biden’s history of granting pardons, such as those given to his son, Hunter Biden, on two separate charges, some observers believe the idea of a pardon for SBF isn’t entirely far-fetched. Additionally, the fact that six charges against SBF were dismissed, sparing him from a second trial, adds another layer of intrigue to the situation.
Polymarket Predicts a 16% Chance
Despite Elon Musk’s confident assertions, the likelihood of President Biden granting a pardon to Sam Bankman-Fried appears quite low. Polymarket, a platform known for its predictive markets, places the probability of such an event occurring at just 16%. This percentage reflects the sentiment of market participants, suggesting that the chances of a pardon remain minimal.
The ongoing discussions and speculations surrounding SBF’s potential pardon continue to captivate the cryptocurrency community and beyond. As the situation unfolds, many are watching closely to see if political connections and social discourse might influence the outcome of this high-profile case.
