The landscape of the Bitcoin futures market is experiencing notable shifts, as recent developments suggest a potential rally driven by the aftermath of Donald Trump’s latest election victory. According to insights from Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33 Research, the immediate effects of the election have triggered a “risk-on rotation” across derivatives, signaling a surge in investor confidence that could drive Bitcoin’s ascent.
Bitcoin Options Market Sets Sights on $80,000 by Late November
On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), significant activity has been observed. The basis, which is the gap between spot market prices and futures contract prices, has sharply increased from 7% to over 15% in just one day. This dramatic rise reflects intensified interest from institutional investors who are eyeing Bitcoin as a promising asset.
In addition to this, perpetual futures contracts, a popular choice among offshore investors, are currently trading at their largest premiums to the spot market since March. This phenomenon highlights an escalating demand for leverage, further underscoring Bitcoin’s growing appeal in the investment community.
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Bitcoin’s price has recently surpassed the $75,000 mark for the first time, boosted by expectations that Trump’s presidency will introduce more favorable policies and regulations for the cryptocurrency industry. Trump has expressed a commitment to supporting market growth, positioning Bitcoin at the core of a potential new economic strategy for the nation.
Prior to the election, reports indicated that the Bitcoin options market was ambitiously targeting $80,000 for expirations scheduled for late November, showcasing a wave of optimism surrounding the asset’s potential for growth.
Analysts Anticipate Robust ETF Inflows Post-Election
Michael Safai, founding partner at quantitative trading firm Dexterity Capital, shared with Bloomberg that Trump’s administration promises reduced regulatory intervention in the US—a development long advocated by crypto investors during years of increased scrutiny.
Despite experiencing one of the largest outflows on Monday, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) backed by Bitcoin are anticipated to witness a potential reversal, driven by renewed optimism among traders. Lunde noted that while the European trading session remained relatively calm, Bitcoin is finding support at its former all-time highs, a positive sign for sustained upward momentum.
With expectations of strong ETF inflows during US trading hours on Wednesday, the combination of rising CME premiums and post-election clarity is anticipated to strengthen Bitcoin’s performance. “The backdrop of burgeoning CME premiums presents carry opportunities that should support strong performance,” Lunde asserted. However, amidst the optimistic outlook, some traders urge caution regarding potential price corrections.
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Past bullish runs, such as the one observed in March following the introduction of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, resulted in significant liquidations across the market, with Bitcoin experiencing drops exceeding 20% after reaching record peaks.
Nathanaël Cohen, co-founder at INDIGO Fund, warned that profit-taking could initiate corrections at current levels. Nevertheless, he remains optimistic about the overall trend moving higher in the months to come.
The daily chart illustrates Bitcoin’s price surge toward new all-time highs. At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $74,430, reflecting an increase of 6.2% over 24 hours and nearly 4% over the week.
