Bitcoin recently captured the spotlight by hitting a new all-time high of $104,088, only to experience extreme volatility the next day. This unprecedented event led to what traders refer to as a “Darth Maul” candle on the daily chart. BTC’s value plunged from $103,550 to a low of $90,500 before finding stability. While initial reactions suggested a harsh rejection at the crucial $100,000 benchmark, leading analysts speculate this could be a routine market flush-out rather than the end of a cycle.
Is This the Pinnacle of the Bitcoin Cycle?
Market experts and traders are closely examining the situation. A consensus among analysts on X suggests that the sudden price fluctuation was likely influenced by large players targeting high-leverage traders. Veteran trader IncomeSharks (@IncomeSharks) commented, “Bitcoin – Classic Darth Maul. This candle might not signify an asset peak. Typically, such moves punish late longers, trap shorters, and propel prices higher.”
Adding to the discourse, Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) noted, “It’s just whales using the ‘rinse high leverage button.’ This occurs before the market resumes its intended course. It’s worthwhile to witness the downside of that wick cleared, but that might be the extent of it.”
Analytical Perspectives on Market Movements
Tony “The Bull” Severino, CMT, highlighted the magnitude of these fluctuations, stating, “An $11K ‘Darth Maul’ on the Bitcoin daily chart. Stops on both sides were run. Incredible intraday volatility in Bitcoin. This is what Bitcoin at $100K looks like—$10,000 swings in a day are the new norm.”
Severino continued, “$100K Bitcoin is the new $10K,” sharing charts that compared the current market to the 2020–2021 bull run, drawing parallels to the present price scenario.
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, added historical context, saying, “Bitcoin. Yes, this is normal.” Edwards shared a similar chart, reminiscing about the volatility when BTC was at $10,000 and $1,000 in early 2017.
Indicators and Market Projections
Despite the volatile environment, key indicators suggest potential for further growth. Matthew Sigel, head of research at VanEck, observed that top signals remain scarce at these levels. “Aside from funding rates, which can linger elevated for some time, very few of our ‘top signals’ indicators indicate the cycle is peaking. The path of least resistance seems upward, in my view.”
Sigel pointed to four critical metrics: the MVRV Z-Score (still below 5), the Bitcoin Price SMA Multiplier (suggesting room for growth), subdued Google Trends, and Crypto Market Dominance at a mid-range level. These factors collectively suggest that the current cycle may not be near its peak.
Macro Analysis and Market Dynamics
Macro analyst Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) offered another angle: “Being asked if that was the top, allow me to share my view. In my book, the first leveraged flush-out of a strong bull run, especially one driven by robust fundamentals, does not mark the top.”
Krüger emphasized that while the move was broadly anticipated, albeit not precisely timed, it does not undermine Bitcoin’s bullish momentum. He remarked that the recent shift of retail investors to older “dino” altcoins might indicate a local top for those assets, but not necessarily for Bitcoin: “Nothing significant has changed in my opinion. It would have been preferable to see funding reset on alts as well. Alas, we can’t have it all.”
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $98,146.
