The Bitcoin community has been eagerly awaiting the start of a new bull market, especially following the recent halving that occurred in April. However, according to a recent analysis from a CryptoQuant analyst under the pseudonym Onchained, that moment has not yet arrived. Here’s why.
Stability in the Long-Term Holder Mourad Ratio
One of the key indicators highlighted in the analysis is the stability of the Long-Term Holder (LTH) Mourad Ratio. Historically, when this ratio remains stable, it suggests that the market is not yet ready for a significant upward movement. Onchained explained that a bull market typically begins only when the ratio starts to deviate negatively from these stable levels. Currently, data shows that the LTH Mourad Ratio is steady, signaling that Bitcoin’s bull run is yet to begin.
This stability in the ratio, as revealed by the analyst, indicates that long-term holders are not yet driving substantial price movement in the market. Investors may need to exercise patience until more favorable conditions arise. For further context, the Mourad Ratio is calculated by dividing the Long-Term Holder Mourad Current Transaction Value (LTH MCTV) by the current Bitcoin price. This calculation provides insight into the average value of UTXOs aged over six months, giving a clearer picture of recent accumulation trends among longer-term BTC holders.
Technicals Suggest Bitcoin Bull Run Is Not So Far
While Onchained’s analysis confirms that the Bitcoin bull run is yet to start, other analysts have turned to historical price charts to gauge when the bull run for BTC could begin from a technical perspective. A popular Bitcoin insight platform known as Bitcoin Archive on X has recently highlighted that BTC is on the verge of making a “bullish crossover on the 5-day chart for the first time in 230 days.”
According to Bitcoin Archive, the last two times this happened, BTC went up by 79% and 74%. Therefore, should this pattern repeat itself, Bitcoin could surge past $100,000.
Historical Patterns and Future Predictions
The significance of this potential crossover cannot be overstated. Historical data suggests that such patterns often lead to substantial price increases. In both previous instances, the bullish crossover on the 5-day chart marked the beginning of significant upward trends. If the pattern holds, Bitcoin enthusiasts could witness the cryptocurrency reaching unprecedented heights.
Implications for Investors
For investors, these insights offer a mixed bag of anticipation and caution. While the potential for a bullish crossover is promising, the stability in the Long-Term Holder Mourad Ratio suggests that the market may not be ready for an immediate surge. Investors are advised to keep a close eye on these indicators and prepare for potential market shifts.
Conclusion
In conclusion, while the Bitcoin community waits with bated breath for the next bull market, current analyses suggest that we may need to wait a bit longer. The stability in the Long-Term Holder Mourad Ratio indicates that long-term holders are not yet pushing the market upwards. However, technical indicators such as the impending bullish crossover on the 5-day chart provide a glimmer of hope for a substantial price increase in the near future.
Stay tuned for more updates as we continue to monitor these critical indicators and their implications for the Bitcoin market.
