With nearly five decades of trading experience since 1975, the legendary trader Peter Brandt has recently shared an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin’s price trajectory in 2025. In a post on X, Brandt stated: “Bitcoin $BTC is now in the sweet spot of the bull market halving cycle that should top in the $130k to $150K range next Aug/Sep. I measure cycles differently than most.”
How High Can Bitcoin Go In 2025?
Brandt’s analysis is deeply rooted in the historical patterns observed in Bitcoin’s halving cycles. His chart, which spans Bitcoin’s price action from early 2022 with projections extending to 2026, highlights two crucial periods, each lasting 518 days. These periods are essential phases in Bitcoin’s market behavior, illustrating the cyclical nature of its price movements.
Understanding the Technical Patterns
A prominent technical pattern identified in Brandt’s chart is the breakout from a broadening wedge. This formation, characterized by diverging support and resistance lines, indicates increasing market volatility as prices make progressively higher highs and lower lows. The successful breakout from this pattern is considered a robust bullish signal, suggesting a potential upward trajectory for Bitcoin’s price.
The Significance of Halving Events
In a detailed blog post from June, titled “The Beautiful Symmetry of Past Bitcoin Bull Market Cycles,” Brandt elaborated on the pivotal role of halving events. He noted that these dates have historically represented the midpoints of past bull market cycles, displaying an almost perfect symmetry within these cycles. Specifically, the number of weeks from the start of each bull market cycle to the halving dates has been nearly equal to the number of weeks from the halving dates to the subsequent bull market highs.
Projecting Future Market Cycles
Based on this symmetrical pattern, Brandt posits that if this sequence continues, the next bull market cycle high could occur in late August or early September 2025. He suggests that the peaks of past bull markets align well with an inverted parabolic curve. If this pattern persists, the high of this bull market cycle could be in the $130,000 to $150,000 range.
Cautious Optimism and Alternative Interpretations
Despite his optimistic projection, Brandt remains cautious. He emphasizes that “no method of analysis is fool-proof” and avoids being overly dogmatic about any idea. While this view is his preferred analysis, he acknowledges it is not his sole interpretation. Brandt notes a 25% probability that Bitcoin’s price has already peaked for this cycle. Should Bitcoin fail to achieve a new all-time high and fall below $55,000, he would increase the probability of an “Exponential Decay.”
Community Engagement
The crypto community has been actively engaging with Brandt’s analysis. Popular crypto analyst Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) responded on X, agreeing with Brandt’s top estimation and underscoring the importance of accurately predicting the market top. Astronomer remarked: “I think you’re spot on with that top estimation Peter! As for calling the bottom, now it is our duty to call the top ideally in one single try. The terminal price does that very well. I have 6 other metrics in place. If they all line up, it is a sell. Location at $160,000.”
Bitcoin to Gold Ratio and Future Speculations
In a further exchange, an X user inquired about the implications for the Bitcoin to gold (BTC/GLD) ratio, suggesting it might imply a much higher price. Brandt responded, “Eventually, yes. But let’s take one step at a time without becoming too dogmatic.”
At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $74,940.
