Dogecoin (DOGE) has recently experienced a significant downturn after a rapid price surge that caught the attention of the crypto community. Over the last two days, DOGE prices have plummeted by more than 21%, marking a sharp reversal after its spectacular rise. Since October 10, Dogecoin had soared over 360%, reaching a peak of $0.4834 on December 8, the highest level since May 2021. However, this upward momentum has now faced substantial downward pressure.
Assessing Dogecoin’s Potential Downside
The current technical indicators suggest that Dogecoin is at a crucial crossroads. Cryptocurrency analyst Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) has shared insights on the DOGE/USD daily chart, providing a detailed analysis:
“Dogecoin is in full breakdown mode. Many believed that DOGE was breaking out, but I, as a lead analyst, identified that on the macro linear chart, Doge was at its crucial resistance point, the macro golden pocket. I cautioned against over-exuberance, warning of a potential major pullback.”
Kevin has previously emphasized the significance of the “golden pocket,” a zone marked by key Fibonacci retracement levels (the .703 and the .786), situated within the $0.47-$0.60 range. This area was critical to overcome for DOGE to aim for new all-time highs. The recent decline suggests that this resistance has held firm, preventing further upward movement.
Breaking Down the Bearish Indicators
Adding to the bearish sentiment, Dogecoin’s price recently fell below a rising trend line that had supported its upward trajectory for the past month. Such a trend line failure often signals a shift in market dynamics, suggesting the waning of buying pressure that previously propelled the asset higher. Traders may view this breach as a signal to secure profits, exit long positions, or consider initiating short setups.
Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart supports the bearish outlook. The RSI has been on a downward trend over the past month, even as DOGE achieved higher highs. This classic bearish divergence—where price action and momentum indicators move in opposite directions—often precedes reversals. The recent move below the supporting price trend line, along with the RSI breaking its own uptrend, confirms a potential decisive shift in momentum towards the downside.
Identifying Potential Downside Targets
Kevin’s chart analysis suggests that DOGE could potentially descend into the $0.29-$0.26 region. Examining the Fibonacci retracement levels on the daily chart offers a roadmap of potential support zones. Presently, the 0.5 Fib retracement at $0.39 appears to be a critical level. Successfully defending this level might halt the bearish trend and set the stage for a potential bounce back above the broken trend line.
However, a daily close below the 0.5 Fib could pave the way for deeper retracements. In such scenarios, DOGE could target the 0.382 Fib at $0.31 and even the 0.236 Fib at $0.21 as possible support levels if selling momentum accelerates. On lower time frames, the 4-hour 200 EMA serves as a crucial support to maintain.
