In an impressive rally, Dogecoin (DOGE) surged over 200% in the initial weeks of November, capturing the attention of investors and analysts alike. However, the cryptocurrency has now entered a phase of consolidation. Crypto analyst Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) interprets this as a potential precursor to another significant price surge, reminiscent of previous market cycles.
Is Dogecoin Heading Towards $4?
Kevin points out that during Dogecoin’s last significant market cycle, the memecoin experienced a consolidation period of 24 days following an initial major rally. This was followed by an ascent to what he terms the “macro golden pocket”—a price range between $3.80 and $4.00, which aligns with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level. If DOGE continues on this historical path, Kevin anticipates a dramatic increase in price by the week’s end, potentially culminating in a new all-time high (ATH) by the month’s conclusion.
Analyzing the Price Trajectory
Kevin elaborates, “In Dogecoin’s previous cycle, after its first major leg up, it consolidated for 24 days before climbing again to the macro golden pocket. If DOGE follows a similar trajectory, the next leg up could commence by the end of the week, guiding Dogecoin towards the macro golden pocket at $3.80-$4.00.”
However, Kevin tempers expectations, acknowledging the unpredictability of such astronomical performance: “Predicting such a trajectory is challenging. Let’s focus on achieving a new ATH by the end of the month, as I previously anticipated in September.”
Current Price Position of Dogecoin
Currently, Dogecoin’s price position is critical. Analyzing the daily DOGE/USD chart, Kevin observes that DOGE is “actively testing this major trend line of support on the daily RSI.” A breach of this support could lead to accelerated downside movement, which bulls would want to avoid.
He further mentions, “While the RSI trend line held on the daily close, a bounce is necessary to maintain this support.” The influence of Bitcoin’s (BTC) price movements could also be pivotal: “If BTC can rally, it would provide much-needed support,” he adds.
The Interplay Between Bitcoin and Dogecoin
Bitcoin itself has been in a consolidation phase since reaching a reported ATH of $99,588 on November 22, trading within a range of $90,800 to $98,500. Kevin notes a “tug of war between price action and the downward momentum on the indicators,” as the daily MACD indicates increased downside momentum not yet reflected in the price. He emphasizes, “Eventually, one of these forces will prevail.”
Potential Bitcoin Breakout
On the 4-hour BTC/USD chart, Kevin highlights a symmetrical triangle pattern nearing its apex, suggesting a possible imminent breakout. Despite recent volatility, “BTC still has not broken down or even closed a 4HR candle below this trend line,” indicating robust support levels.
He also points out significant liquidation levels around $100,000, noting, “It’s only a matter of time before BTC decides to come up and claim that liquidity at $100K.”
Impact on Dogecoin
This movement by Bitcoin could potentially trigger the next major price surge for Dogecoin, aligning with patterns observed in the previous cycle. Kevin’s analysis underscores the critical role of the interplay between Bitcoin and Dogecoin prices in predicting future market movements.
At the time of writing, DOGE is trading at $0.4194.
