In an insightful video analysis, “BITCOIN’S One Indicator Signaling LAST Major Dip,” Dan Gambardello, a respected crypto analyst with a robust following of 370,000 subscribers on YouTube, delves into Bitcoin’s recent price movements. His analysis focuses on forecasting what might be the final significant dip in Bitcoin’s price trajectory. After a sharp decline to $60,000 on Wednesday, concerns about a possible deeper price crash have gripped the Bitcoin market.
Why This Could Be The Final Leg Down For Bitcoin
Gambardello underscores the importance of both the daily and six-hour charts in understanding Bitcoin’s current market position. On the daily chart, Bitcoin is testing the 50-day moving average—a crucial indicator often used to gauge short-term market sentiment. Yet, it is the six-hour chart’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) that captures Gambardello’s primary attention. The RSI, a momentum oscillator that measures the velocity and change of price movements, has reached oversold levels. Traditionally, an oversold RSI is considered a bullish signal, potentially heralding the end of the current price dip.
Insights from Historical Trends
Gambardello observes, “The bottom is actually, I think, close. There could be some type of capitulation in the very short term, but I think there could be a very strong bounce after that happens.” Despite the immediate market turbulence attributed to geopolitical tensions such as the Israel-Iran conflict, the core fundamentals suggest a strong recovery on the horizon. Via X, Gambardello elaborates, “Nothing like a 6 hour oversold RSI at the beginning of bull season. Also great during bull season.” This statement is rooted in his analysis of past market behaviors under similar conditions, illustrating the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s market dynamics.
October’s Historical Pattern
Drawing parallels to historical data, Gambardello highlights Bitcoin’s behavioral trends in past Octobers, noting a recurring pattern of initial declines followed by robust recoveries by the month’s end. He confidently predicts, “October will close green. It’s always [like this] with the dip. People are just freaking out. I guess that’s it, but this gives us a little time. We’re getting all these red candles going into October, give us another week, maybe even two and we could get a pump, a breakout to the upside to end October.”
Potential Scenarios and Support Levels
Furthering his analysis, Gambardello explores potential scenarios concerning Bitcoin’s lower trend line, which has acted as a recurrent support level over the past six months. He theorizes that if Bitcoin approaches this trend line once more, it could serve as a robust support level, potentially marking the last significant downturn before a sustained upward trend. A final touch of the trendline could drive the BTC price down to as low as $50,000. However, Gambardello considers this scenario less likely, as the 6-hour RSI has already reached oversold territory while Bitcoin is currently bouncing off the 50-day moving average.
Halving Year Predictions
Moreover, Gambardello references Bitcoin’s performance in past halving years, which are typically followed by bull markets, as observed in 2016 and 2020. He suggests that the current year might follow a similar trajectory. “This is a Halving year. We’ve seen what’s happened in Halving years in 2020 and 2016 in October. Is it going to repeat?” At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $60,899, maintaining its position above $60,000.
As the crypto landscape continues to evolve, Gambardello’s analysis offers valuable insights into potential market movements, helping investors navigate the complexities of Bitcoin trading.
