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Bitcoin (BTC) recently experienced a noteworthy rebound, climbing back towards its all-time high of $73,700 achieved in March. This resurgence followed a temporary dip below the $60,000 mark on October 10. Despite the volatility that has characterized Bitcoin’s journey this year, including major price swings and a sharp decline of nearly 20% on August 5 and September 6, optimism around a potential bull run remains strong.
Historical Patterns Suggest Bitcoin Could Surge Past $70,000
Renowned crypto analyst Ali Martinez has drawn attention to Bitcoin’s resurgence, particularly as it hovers just below the $66,000 mark. Martinez emphasizes that maintaining this level could pave the way for further gains. In a series of posts on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter), he noted that Bitcoin is once again challenging the critical 200-day moving average (MA), which is currently positioned between $63,000 and $64,000 on the daily chart.
The significance of this level cannot be understated, as Bitcoin has faced four rejections at this threshold earlier this year. However, its persistent attempts to breach this level could herald a major shift in the cryptocurrency’s price trajectory. Martinez also pointed out a historical pattern: each of the last three times Bitcoin successfully surpassed the 200-day MA, it triggered parabolic bull runs. This suggests that if Bitcoin can consolidate above this crucial level for the remainder of the month, it significantly increases the likelihood of surpassing the $70,000 mark for the first time in nearly three months. The analyst has set a near-term target of $78,000 for Bitcoin.
Historical Trends And Election Dynamics Fuel Optimism
Bitcoin’s price recovery has also been linked to evolving expectations surrounding the US regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies, especially in light of the upcoming presidential election. Bloomberg reports that Democratic nominee and Vice President Kamala Harris has expressed her commitment to establishing a supportive regulatory framework for crypto. This announcement coincides with outreach efforts aimed at Black male voters as election day approaches.
Conversely, Harris’ Republican rival, Donald Trump, has positioned himself as a staunch advocate for the digital asset industry. His promises include potential changes to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the establishment of a national Bitcoin reserve. Bloomberg believes these initiatives could resonate with voters in a closely contested race.
Noelle Acheson, author of the “Crypto Is Macro Now” newsletter, observed that recent market movements appear to be influenced by election dynamics. Initially, Bitcoin’s uptick was driven by Trump’s lead in prediction markets and polls. This was followed by favorable comments from the Harris campaign regarding crypto, indicating a potentially less restrictive approach compared to the current Biden administration. Although the specifics of Harris’s crypto policy remain unclear, the sentiment suggests a possible shift towards a more positive regulatory environment.
October: A Historically Strong Month for Bitcoin
October has historically been a robust month for Bitcoin, with the cryptocurrency averaging a 20% gain during this period over the past decade. Sean Farrell, head of digital asset strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors LLC, highlighted that this seasonal strength is typically more pronounced in the latter half of the month, suggesting that Bitcoin’s price could experience further gains as October progresses.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $65,970, reflecting an increase of over 5% in the past 24 hours.
