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As Bitcoin (BTC) undergoes a slight correction and trades below the crucial $66,000 support level following multiple unsuccessful attempts to surpass the $70,000 mark, analysts have identified key technical indicators that suggest potential price recoveries in the near future. Notably, the weekly Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BTC has turned bullish for the first time since October 2023. This change in the MACD mirrors previous market patterns, especially the significant rally during the 2021 bull market.
Current Bitcoin Trends Echo 2021 Rally, New ATH Possible
Crypto analyst CryptoBullet has highlighted that the last occurrence of a bullish MACD signal was when BTC was valued between $20,000 and $25,000 in 2023. This preceded a notable price surge, reaching a new all-time high of $73,700 in March this year. Such context signals the possibility of substantial gains ahead for the foremost cryptocurrency as the market starts to display recovery signs from prior consolidation phases over recent months.
Analyzing Market Parallels with 2021
In a recent analysis shared on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter), CryptoBullet also pointed out the resemblances between the current market conditions and those experienced during the 2021 bull cycle. The analyst underscored the vertical rally witnessed in 2021, followed by a mid-term correction, indicating that while the present correction might not be as harsh, it has taken a longer period to develop. CryptoBullet elaborated that BTC is breaking out from this multi-month consolidation as MACD turns bullish again, hinting at the potential for achieving a new all-time high in the closing months of the year, alongside a lower high on the MACD indicator.
Cycle Top of $95,000-$100,000 By Early 2025
CryptoBullet’s optimistic perspective extends over the next two years, projecting a cycle top for Bitcoin ranging between $95,000 and $100,000, with a subsequent bear market bottom anticipated between $23,000 and $25,000. This forecast is grounded in Fibonacci wave analysis, where the confluence of the 1.618 Fibonacci level and the top of the current channel is predicted to align with his target for Wave 5.
Future Market Dynamics
CryptoBullet anticipates that once the target range of $95,000 to $100,000 is reached—expected between December 2024 and March 2025—Bitcoin may encounter resistance, initiating the first wave (A) of the upcoming bear market. The analyst foresees a temporary low during the summer of 2025, followed by market fluctuations often referred to as a “Dead Cat Bounce,” expected between September and December 2025.
Potential Challenges Ahead
CryptoBullet warns that the most challenging phase, Wave C, could extend throughout 2026, with a possible target of $23,000 to $25,000. He acknowledges the inherent uncertainty in these projections, stating, “These are just my expectations. I try to be conservative here and not give you crazy $250,000 to $500,000 or $1 million targets.” In his analysis, CryptoBullet also notes that these scenarios could be invalidated if there is a dramatic shift in the macroeconomic landscape, which could lead Bitcoin to break out of its multi-year channel to the upside. In such a case, discussions around $170,000 to $200,000 targets for Bitcoin could become relevant.
At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $65,970, down 2% over the past 24 hours.
