As the United States presidential election draws near, Bitcoin has found a stable support range between $68,000 and $69,000. This range is just below its all-time high earlier this year, and while Bitcoin has struggled to surpass this significant milestone, investor sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. Many expect further price increases, tempered by anticipated market volatility in the coming days.
Potential 8% Bitcoin Price Swing Post-Election
The options market suggests that Bitcoin could experience price swings of approximately 8% in either direction following the election. This is a notable increase compared to the typical 2% fluctuations seen on regular trading days. Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, a crypto derivatives liquidity provider, noted that “no significant volatility premium is priced in after Nov. 7,” indicating that the market expects a relatively swift resolution to the election results.
Crypto Community’s Response to Election Candidates
The election pits Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump against Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, with both candidates eliciting varied responses from the crypto community. Trump’s favorable stance towards cryptocurrencies has positioned Bitcoin as part of the so-called “Trump trades,” especially in light of the regulatory crackdown experienced under President Joe Biden. As Trump’s odds have fluctuated in betting markets, the Bitcoin price has mirrored these changes, briefly nearing record highs before retreating as polls indicate a tightly contested race.
The options market reflects a balanced sentiment, with an even distribution of bearish and bullish positions throughout October. Traders are preparing for upward and downward movements as the election draws near. Data from the Deribit exchange suggests a potential trading range of $60,000 to $80,000 for Bitcoin in the weeks following the election, based on peak open interest in options contracts.
Viability of Bitcoin’s Path to $100,000
Crypto analyst Miles Deutscher has shared his views on social media, suggesting that a Trump victory could lead to an immediate Bitcoin price surge, potentially establishing a new all-time high this year. Conversely, the analyst suggests that a win for Harris might result in a price drop, delaying any new highs until Q1 2025. Regardless of the election outcome, Deutscher remains confident that Bitcoin will reach $100,000.
Market expert Patric H. offers another layer of analysis, observing that Bitcoin closed the past week above a daily downtrend channel, indicating a potential reversal. However, Patrick notes that the weekly candle shows weakness, prompting market participants to de-risk before the election. His bullish thesis hinges on Bitcoin holding above $65,000; a drop below this level could signal a return to extended price volatility.
Trading Perspectives and Market Sentiments
From a trading perspective, data indicates that perpetual traders on Binance have withdrawn limit buy orders below $50,000, suggesting a shift in sentiment. Previously, there was substantial long interest in the “multi-billion dollar range” between $42,000 and $50,000, but traders appear to have sidelined that capital in favor of higher price levels. The next significant limit buy order is $63,800, with additional smaller orders scattered down to that level, suggesting that Bitcoin may not fall significantly below this point.
On the upside, the next significant resistance level for the Bitcoin price is $73,000, where substantial selling interest from Coinbase and Binance is noted. Patrick anticipates a potential rejection in the $75,000 to $76,000 range, which could precede a breakout if those levels are successfully breached.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $68,360, marking a 0.8% increase over the past 24 hours.
