“We’ll Be Way Up in a Few Months”
The prominent crypto researcher, Qiao Wang of Alliance, has recently shared an optimistic outlook with the community. Through a latest post, Wang highlighted that as the world’s two largest economies, the US and China, are both nearing the start of the next easing cycles, the macro conditions for a crypto rally seem potentially strong.
Wang indicated that the two largest economic systems in the world — the U.S. and China — have initiated “easing cycles.” This suggests that both countries are returning to “quantitative easing” (QE), a monetary policy strategy used by central banks like the Federal Reserve. With QE, a central bank purchases securities to reduce interest rates, increase the supply of money, and drive more lending to consumers and businesses.
Such measures were taken by the U.S. government during the 2008 and 2020 crises to handle market recessions and mitigate their effects. Wang also noted that the “chart finally is looking good.” Over the last month, Bitcoin (BTC) gained almost 10%, challenging the long-held “Bitcoin hates September” narrative. However, he mentioned that market sentiment is still somewhat in disbelief. He concluded by saying, “Way up a few months from now.”
Is a Big Recession Imminent?
The community is actively discussing the potential QE initiatives from both the U.S. and China as powerful drivers for challenging times. For the first time in 19 years, the People’s Bank of China initiated a treasury bond trade totaling 100 billion yuan or $14.1 billion equivalent. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve cut the rate for the first time since July 2023 to 5%.
Notably, veteran trader Henrik Zeberg has repeatedly forecasted the “worst recession since the 1920s” to occur in the next few months. The potential economic downturn raises concerns but also highlights opportunities for the crypto market.
Bitcoin’s Bullish Momentum Going Strong
Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs recorded the highest multi-week inflows in the session ending Friday, September 27, amidst the ongoing crypto market recovery. For the first time since July, weekly inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs surpassed the billion-dollar mark, reaching $1.11 billion. Analysts are now predicting a new all-time high for BTC over the next three months.
In his latest analysis, 10x Research’s Markus Thielen noted that Bitcoin’s recent breakout above $65,000 is a major catalyst for a potential Q4 rally. He believes this move could ignite a wave of FOMO (Fear of Missing Out), pushing Bitcoin toward $70,000 and setting the stage for new all-time highs sooner than most expect.
Thielen pointed to a combination of factors driving this bullish momentum, including a sharp rise in stablecoin minting, with nearly $10 billion issued after the Federal Reserve’s July meeting, flooding the crypto market with liquidity. He also noted that 55% of currently mined Bitcoins come from mining pools in China. The country’s massive monetary and fiscal stimulus measures, following the Fed’s rate cut, could trigger “significant capital outflows” into cryptocurrencies, potentially accelerating Bitcoin’s bullish momentum.
Thielen stated, “The likelihood of a Q4 rally is exceptionally high, with gains likely front-loaded. Our recent reports emphasized the importance of positioning for this rally that may just be beginning. FOMO has returned to the altcoin market, fueled by Bitcoin’s breakout above $65,000. A major surge could be on the horizon, sparking even more FOMO across the crypto space.”
