Over the past month, the cryptocurrency landscape has experienced notable shifts. Bitcoin has demonstrated a robust surge, increasing by 8.5%, whereas Ethereum has faced a minor downturn, declining by 1.0%. Since the middle of October, the Bitcoin Spot ETF market has consistently shown positive inflows, with only a single day recording negative inflows. A staggering inflow of $472.60 million was observed just yesterday. Meanwhile, the 2-year US Treasury Bond Yield, which was approximately 5.035% in late April, has dropped to 4.154%. As the market continues to fluctuate, the question remains: what lies ahead?
Analyzing Market Correlations
Crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe has highlighted a connection between Bitcoin’s upward trajectory and the sustained positive inflows into the Bitcoin ETF market. Concurrently, a relationship is observed between Ethereum’s downturn and the declining US Treasury yields. Delving deeper into these patterns uncovers intriguing insights into the cryptocurrency market dynamics.
On October 10, Bitcoin’s price dipped to a low of $60,311 but has since rebounded, marking an impressive rise of 18.23%. This month has been notable for strong inflows into the Bitcoin Spot ETF market. On October 25, an inflow of $401.20 million was recorded, followed by a more substantial inflow of $472.60 million yesterday. Notably, IBIT, a leading issuer of BTC Spot ETFs, has not experienced any outflows since October 15, underscoring a significant inflow of $308.40 million just yesterday.
Altcoin Market Analysis
The altcoin market, excluding the top ten cryptocurrencies, has seen a decline in dominance from 10.27% at the beginning of the month to 9.31%, indicating a 9.34% decrease. Ethereum, in particular, has faced challenges. After reaching a monthly peak of $2,747 on October 21, the market has struggled, with current prices hovering at $2,623.
Examining the 2-year US Treasury Bond Yield reveals a fluctuation from 3.609% at the start of the month to a peak of 4.025% on October 9, before dipping to 3.939% on October 16. The current yield of 4.154% remains significantly lower, by at least 21.25%, compared to the yearly peak of 5.037%.
Key Economic Indicators to Watch
Today, two crucial economic events are anticipated in the US market: the US JOLTs Job Openings and the US CB Consumer Confidence report. Both events are poised to impact market movements. In August, the US Job Openings index rose to 8.04 million, a notable increase from July’s 7.71 million. The current consensus suggests a potential reduction to 7.99 million.
Additionally, the US CB Consumer Confidence Index recorded 98.7 last month, falling short of the forecasted 103.9. In contrast, August’s index exceeded expectations, recording 105.6 against a forecast of 100.9. Experts caution that these economic events could induce volatility in the crypto market, particularly affecting Bitcoin and Ethereum.
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