Why XRP Appears ‘Super Bullish’
Crypto analyst Dark Defender (@DefendDark) has issued a positive forecast for XRP, projecting a price surge above $5.85. This prediction is based on a combination of technical indicators and chart patterns. Despite recent market stagnation, several key factors, including the application of Elliott Wave theory, suggest a significant upward movement is imminent.
Analyzing the Trend Lines
According to Dark Defender, XRP’s price is currently influenced by three primary trend lines. Two of these form a symmetrical triangle pattern, while the third—a downward-sloping orange line—represents a long-term downtrend that XRP has recently broken above on the monthly chart.
Symmetrical Triangle Pattern and Its Implications
The symmetrical triangle, formed by two converging trendlines, illustrates a 4-year period of consolidation. Generally considered a continuation pattern, this formation suggests that the price is likely to continue in the direction of the existing trend upon breakout. In XRP’s case, the price has attempted to break to the upside several times, but has yet to achieve lasting success.
The Significance of the Downward-Sloping Orange Line
The downward-sloping orange line has served as a significant resistance level for XRP since the summer of 2021. The fact that XRP has broken above this long-term downtrend line on the monthly chart signals a strong bullish sentiment. This breakout indicates a shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish, potentially leading to substantial price appreciation.
Incorporating Elliott Wave Theory
An integral part of Dark Defender’s analysis is the application of Elliott Wave theory to XRP’s price action. The chart shared by the analyst displays an Elliott Wave count that suggests XRP is poised to enter a Wave 3 impulse move, historically the most powerful and extended wave in the five-wave trend sequence. The analyst believes that XRP has completed Wave 2—a corrective phase characterized by downward price movement—and is now embarking on Wave 3. This wave is often marked by strong momentum and increased market participation, potentially explaining the anticipated surge above $5.85.
Fibonacci Extension Levels and Price Targets
The projected target aligns with Fibonacci extension levels commonly associated with Wave 3 movements, providing a technical basis for the significant price increase. In the short term, the 70.2% Fibonacci price level at $0.6649 is the most crucial resistance for XRP. If this barrier breaks, Wave 3 could be confirmed. A first major extension target would be the 161.8% Fibonacci level at $1.88, with the ultimate target potentially reaching the 261.8% Fibonacci level at $5.85.
Additional Indicators Supporting the Bullish Outlook
Dark Defender also highlights the Heikin Ashi candles, which are currently averaging at $0.57 on the monthly chart. The analyst notes, “When Heikin Ashi candles (average-price candles, currently at $0.57) are considered, the monthly average price stays above the support level, which is critical for XRP to continue the momentum.”
Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator on the monthly timeframe has printed a green dot, a bullish signal suggesting increasing upward momentum. The MACD is a momentum oscillator that helps traders identify potential trend reversals. A green dot typically signifies that the MACD line has crossed above the signal line, indicating a positive shift in momentum.
The Independence of XRP Price from External News
Ultimately, Dark Defender contends that XRP’s price action is largely independent of external news events, including developments related to the SEC lawsuit against Ripple. While acknowledging that such news can have a minor impact, the analyst argues that technical patterns and indicators hold more sway over XRP’s movements. “As most expected, nothing happened after the appeal decision. XRP just hovered around the Ichimoku clouds top at levels above $0.60 and bounced back to $0.50. I am Bullish; why? As I always highlight, XRP does not follow any news such as SEC. OK, they have a minor impact, but that’s it,” Dark Defender notes.
Conclusion: A Bullish Future for XRP?
Based on the technical factors outlined—including the breakout above the long-term downtrend line, the significance of the symmetrical triangle, the importance of the Heikin Ashi monthly average price, bullish signals from the MACD, and the Elliott Wave count—Dark Defender is “super bullish” on XRP. The analyst anticipates that the asset will follow historical patterns leading to a price exceeding $5.85. At press time, XRP traded at $0.53.
